Are more meteorites falling, or are we just better at noticing?
The question
How has the number of recorded meteorite falls per decade changed over the last 200 years, and what explains the pattern?
The rate at which meteorites reach the Earth has not changed noticeably in two centuries, but the number recorded has. Separating real change from observation bias is a central skill in science.
Equipment
- The site's falls-by-year pages and catalogue
- A spreadsheet
- Optional: historical population figures for a few countries
Method
- Using the site, count the recorded falls in each decade from 1800 onwards.
- Plot falls per decade against time.
- Split the data by country or region where you can, and compare it with changes such as population growth, newspapers, the telephone, wars, camera networks and doorbell cameras.
- Write down the hypotheses that could explain your graph and the evidence for and against each.
- What to measure
- Falls per decade overall and for chosen countries, and any changes that line up with historical events.
- How to present it
- A report with your graphs, a fair discussion of observation bias, and what kind of data would test your best explanation.
- Take it further
- Compare falls with finds. Why are hot-desert and Antarctic finds so concentrated in the last 50 years?
Safety
Desk-based research: no hazards.