Predicted impact
A predicted impact is an asteroid strike on Earth forecast after the asteroid was spotted in space beforehand.
A predicted impact happens when astronomers discover a small asteroid on a collision course with Earth, calculate where and when it will hit, and see the event happen as forecast. The first was 2008 TC3 over Sudan in October 2008.
Since then, about a dozen such impacts have been predicted, all by small objects a few metres across or less that broke up harmlessly in the atmosphere. Examples include 2014 AA over the Atlantic, 2018 LA over Botswana, whose meteorites were later found in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve, 2022 EB5 near Greenland, 2023 CX1 over northern France, with meteorites found near Saint-Pierre-le-Viger, and 2024 BX1 near Berlin, whose meteorites were found at Ribbeck.
Predicted impacts are valuable for two reasons. They test planetary defence systems, which must find, track and alert on threats quickly. They also allow meteorites to be linked to an asteroid observed in space, giving rare ground truth about what small asteroids are made of.
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